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Chipwoodstock

The Long Run Guess

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Assume that the highest possible number chosen by Chipwoodstock reached a top boundary of 999,999,999,999,999. If the answer is not negative, the lowest possible number would be 0. There is a 1 of 1,000,000,000,000,000 chance that the number given is correct, which is not but would probably be deemed impossible by many. If the number changing rule is put into place, once the tenth guess is up and the number is randomly re-selected, the probability of guessing correct decreases from 1/999,999,999,999,991 back to 1/1,000,000,000,000,000. 

 

Assume the number variation rule is not put into action. If the number were to be correctly guessed on the last possible post - the 1,000,000,000,000,000th post - and assuming (with the addition of this post, it would exceed this estimate, but just as a "what if..") that all text in each posts after the original starting post contain anywhere from 8 to 120 bytes assuming the post contains a number (96 bytes without usage of commas) between 1 and 15 (12 without commas) characters long. 

So, if the last post, using process of elimination to figure out the last number after 1,000,000,000,000,000 posts, held the correct number, the total amount of data usage from this topic/thread alone would total anywhere from 8,000,000,000,000,000 bytes (equal to about 8 exabytes) to around a maximum of 120,000,000,000,000,000 bytes (equal to about 120 exabytes, or close to 1/8 of an entire zettabyte). In comparison, the internet is estimated to, currently, be the size of somewhere between 500 exabytes and 1 yottabyte. To compare, 500 exabytes is equal to 576,460,752,303,423,488,000 bytes. So if this topic were to contain the mentioned 1 quadrillion posts above, it would use up about 24 percent (12/50) of the entire Internet's total data.

 

 

If the number were to be correctly guessed on the first reply, and seeing that there are 392 characters in Chipwoodstock's original topic post, it contains 3136 bytes of text. If the correct number were a single digit, the second post would bump the total up to 3144 bytes. If the number were to be 999,999,999,999,999,999

then the data total would be 3320 bytes, or 3280 bytes without using commas.

 

None of this is or would be possible as 

 

a. the site would overflow with data

b. the topic would be locked before that anyway (or be forgotten about)

c. the count would roll over at 65535

d. we will not be living organisms anymore

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He stated that the number could be anything at all, that is anything from -∞ to +∞. Thus the chance of guessing right is 1/∞; that is 0.

 

(EDIT: oh, correction, he said no negative numbers so it's only 0 to +∞. The chance is the same though.)

 

So my guess is 0.

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Colonel Mustard... in the library.... with a six month subscription to Glamor Magazine. Boom I got it. TOO EASY

 

AWARD PLEASE (Y)

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yeah I wanna keep guessing too; that last post wasn't my final answer; .......this is:

 

man-woman-grey.jpg

 

where is my award?

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601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625 
626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 
651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673 674 675 
676 677 678 679 680 681 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700 
701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 
726 727 728 729 730 731 732 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 740 741 742 743 744 745 746 747 748 749 750 
751 752 753 754 755 756 757 758 759 760 761 762 763 764 765 766 767 768 769 770 771 772 773 774 775 
776 777 778 779 780 781 782 783 784 785 786 787 788 789 790 791 792 793 794 795 796 797 798 799 800 
801 802 803 804 805 806 807 808 809 810 811 812 813 814 815 816 817 818 819 820 821 822 823 824 825 
826 827 828 829 830 831 832 833 834 835 836 837 838 839 840 841 842 843 844 845 846 847 848 849 850 
851 852 853 854 855 856 857 858 859 860 861 862 863 864 865 866 867 868 869 870 871 872 873 874 875 
876 877 878 879 880 881 882 883 884 885 886 887 888 889 890 891 892 893 894 895 896 897 898 899 900 
901 902 903 904 905 906 907 908 909 910 911 912 913 914 915 916 917 918 919 920 921 922 923 924 925 
926 927 928 929 930 931 932 933 934 935 936 937 938 939 940 941 942 943 944 945 946 947 948 949 950 
951 952 953 954 955 956 957 958 959 960 961 962 963 964 965 966 967 968 969 970 971 972 973 974 975 
976 977 978 979 980 981 982 983 984 985 986 987 988 989 990 991 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 1000

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76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 

101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 

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376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 

401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 

426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 

451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 

476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 

501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 

526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 

551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570 571 572 573 574 575 

576 577 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 

601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625 

626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 

651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673 674 675 

676 677 678 679 680 681 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700 

701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 

726 727 728 729 730 731 732 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 740 741 742 743 744 745 746 747 748 749 750 

751 752 753 754 755 756 757 758 759 760 761 762 763 764 765 766 767 768 769 770 771 772 773 774 775 

776 777 778 779 780 781 782 783 784 785 786 787 788 789 790 791 792 793 794 795 796 797 798 799 800 

801 802 803 804 805 806 807 808 809 810 811 812 813 814 815 816 817 818 819 820 821 822 823 824 825 

826 827 828 829 830 831 832 833 834 835 836 837 838 839 840 841 842 843 844 845 846 847 848 849 850 

851 852 853 854 855 856 857 858 859 860 861 862 863 864 865 866 867 868 869 870 871 872 873 874 875 

876 877 878 879 880 881 882 883 884 885 886 887 888 889 890 891 892 893 894 895 896 897 898 899 900 

901 902 903 904 905 906 907 908 909 910 911 912 913 914 915 916 917 918 919 920 921 922 923 924 925 

926 927 928 929 930 931 932 933 934 935 936 937 938 939 940 941 942 943 944 945 946 947 948 949 950 

951 952 953 954 955 956 957 958 959 960 961 962 963 964 965 966 967 968 969 970 971 972 973 974 975 

976 977 978 979 980 981 982 983 984 985 986 987 988 989 990 991 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 1000

The number has now changed over 102 times.

 

3217527962935902672396123692356927

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[still using Arabic] There are only ten basic numbers including zero [no fractions]

 

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 0.

 

After 9, we see it as 10. However, 10 isn't a number on its own. Since we don't have a single-digit value higher than 9, we revert to using 0 as a placeholder for a digit-less space value. Even though it has no value, it still must appear or else it will be read as "1".

 

That being said, "10" is a combination of just a one and a zero.

 

"11" is a combination of a one and another one.

 

etc.

 

So, if there are only ten basic numbers we can use, and we can only have ten guesses before the number switches, how can an eleventh number be guessed?

 

Obviously, the number has changed as ten guesses have already been posted on more than one occasion.

 

Let's restart.

 

1

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Chipwoodstock never specified it was a "basic number" (which is the same thing as a decimal digit according to IceyLava108).

 

That being said, i'll guess 8.

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I don't understand how this thread got popular in the first place, it's kind of a one-sided game if you think about it :P

 

Anyway, my new guess is 350. 

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This is a useless exercise in futility. If you want to make it interesting, then questions about the number should be permitted. for instance, Is the number a 'real' number or irrational? or a prime? or even/uneven? or divisible by 3? Or, is it greater than quantity X? or less than quantity Y? Then you could do it in a manner similar to the 20 questions game.

ian

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This is a useless exercise in futility. If you want to make it interesting, then questions about the number should be permitted. for instance, Is the number a 'real' number or irrational? or a prime? or even/uneven? or divisible by 3? Or, is it greater than quantity X? or less than quantity Y? Then you could do it in a manner similar to the 20 questions game.

ian

That sounds nice. Should we wait for Chipwoodstock to come back and answer our questions or should someone else imagine a number?

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Chipwoodstock never specified it was a "basic number" (which is the same thing as a decimal digit according to IceyLava108).

 

That being said, i'll guess 8.

 

I was referring to any single-digit decimal

 

1266

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That sounds nice. Should we wait for Chipwoodstock to come back and answer our questions or should someone else imagine a number?

 

Let's just do it.

 

The Ultra Super Important Rules of Doom: Someone comes of with a number. It could be any number (irrational, imaginary, etc.). Other people ask yes/no questions about the number, which the person who came up with the number answers. At most one question per post. Questions continue until the number is correctly guessed.

 

To start with, I've got a number.

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